Using Lanchester equations for sequential battle prediction enabling better military decision support

Abstract

This paper documents an innovative method for analysing multiple sequential interactions between two forces engaged in battle, to assist military strategists in deploying forces appropriately. It builds on previous combat models for the calculation of probabilistic distributions of battle results and permits analysis of repeated opposing force interactions. The goal is to provide military decision-makers with a more applicable method, enabling better decision-support tools to aid in military planning and operations. The paper makes several recommendations for suggested strategies in sequential battles based on the results of example problems.