'Coriolis Effect' of Economic Policies

M. Bayraktar
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Abstract

Why is it that so many economic policies constantly fall short of their initial intended goals? In the social sciences, unintended consequences are outcomes of a purposeful action that are not intended or foreseen. The law of unintended consequences refers to how economic decisions may have effects that are unexpected. Adam Smith's “invisible hand,” is an example of a positive unintended consequence. For instance, the U.S. government has imposed quotas on imports of steel in order to protect steel companies and steelworkers from the lower-priced competition. But they also make less of the cheap steel available to U.S. automakers. As a result, the automakers have to pay more for steel than their foreign competitors do. In Korea, the towns which adopted the suicide prevention law failed to mitigate the suicide rate or even worsening it. In the state of Maharashtra India, the implementation of the family planning program resulted in strong son preference result in an adverse sex ratio in the state. Daniel Ellsberg's (1972) critique of the “quagmire model,” for U.S.catastrophic entanglement in the Vietnam War. Some Sub-Saharan African countries use agrochemicals that increased the value of harvest but are also associated with increasing costs of human illness. Economic effects of 1929 U.S. Prohibition were largely negative, eliminated thousands of jobs, with one of the unintended economic consequences of Prohibition, was on decreasing government tax revenues. 2010 U. S. Dodd-Frank Act discouraging companies from sourcing 'conflict minerals' from the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo increased the probability of infant deaths in villages near the regulated ‘conflict mineral’ deposits by at least 143 percent. The law of unintended consequences rarely defined, is that actions of people (especially of government) always have effects that are unintended. In 1692 the English philosopher John Locke urged a parliamentary bill designed to cut the interest from 6 percent to 4 percent that instead of benefiting borrowers, as intended, it would hurt them. French economic journalist Frédéric Bastiat distinguished the seen were the obviously visible consequences of an action or policy. The unseen were the less obvious unintended, consequences. In 1936 by the American sociologist, Robert K. Merton recognized five sources of unanticipated consequences. I am adding the sixth source and refer to it as the "Coriolis Effect". The Coriolis force, named after French mathematician Gaspard Gustave de Coriolis (1792–1843). In 1835, Coriolis derived the expression of a force acting in rotating systems, now known as the Coriolis force. Scientists have invented an imaginary clockwise circulation force, called the Coriolis force, to account for the Coriolis effect. In the 1870s, a handful of committed economists hoped to make economics a science as highly regarded as physics applied by Newton’s physical laws of motion to economic science. When Newton's laws are modified to a rotating frame of reference, the Coriolis and moving or tending to move away from a center increase in speeds appear. The Coriolis force minutely changes the direction of a bullet, affecting accuracy at, particularly long distances. At the gridline of Sacramento, California, a 1,000 yd (910 m) northward shot would be deflected 2.8 in (71 mm) to the right. Negative unintended consequences repeatedly become visible when a simple regulation is imposed on a complex system. Given the complexity of physical, social, and economic systems, negative unintended consequences are likely to come out and to be notable. Thus, policymakers should also be aware of the “Coriolis Force” phenomenon while calculating their economic policies due to "Coriolis Force" could deflect the direction of intended policy to unwanted and unpredicted results for the economy.
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经济政策的“科里奥利效应”
为什么如此多的经济政策总是达不到最初的预期目标?在社会科学中,意想不到的后果是有目的的行为所产生的结果,而这种行为是不打算或无法预见的。意外后果定律指的是经济决策如何产生意想不到的影响。亚当·斯密的“看不见的手”就是一个积极的意外后果的例子。例如,美国政府为了保护钢铁公司和钢铁工人免受低价竞争的影响,对钢铁进口实施了配额。但它们也减少了可供美国汽车制造商使用的廉价钢材。因此,汽车制造商不得不支付比外国竞争对手更高的钢材价格。在韩国,实施《防止自杀法》的地方,自杀率非但没有下降,反而进一步恶化。在印度马哈拉施特拉邦,计划生育计划的实施导致了强烈的重男轻女,导致该邦的性别比例失调。丹尼尔·埃尔斯伯格(Daniel Ellsberg, 1972)对美国在越南战争中灾难性纠缠的“泥潭模型”的批评。一些撒哈拉以南非洲国家使用农用化学品,增加了收成的价值,但也增加了人类疾病的成本。1929年美国禁酒令对经济的影响很大程度上是负面的,减少了成千上万的工作岗位,禁酒令的一个意想不到的经济后果是减少了政府的税收收入。2010年美国多德-弗兰克法案不鼓励公司从刚果民主共和国东部采购“冲突矿产”,这使得受监管的“冲突矿产”矿床附近村庄的婴儿死亡率至少增加了143%。意想不到的后果法则很少被定义,它是指人们(尤其是政府)的行为总是会产生意想不到的影响。1692年,英国哲学家约翰·洛克(John Locke)敦促议会通过一项法案,旨在将利率从6%降至4%,这不仅不会如预期的那样使借款人受益,反而会损害他们的利益。法国经济记者弗拉尔姆·巴斯夏指出,所谓“看得见的”是一项行动或政策的明显后果。看不见的是不太明显的意外后果。1936年,美国社会学家罗伯特·k·默顿(Robert K. Merton)指出了造成意外后果的五个原因。我正在添加第六个源,并将其称为“科里奥利效应”。科里奥利力,以法国数学家加斯帕德·古斯塔夫·德·科里奥利(1792-1843)的名字命名。1835年,科里奥利导出了作用在旋转系统中的力的表达式,现在被称为科里奥利力。科学家们发明了一种假想的顺时针循环力,称为科里奥利力,以解释科里奥利效应。在19世纪70年代,少数坚定的经济学家希望把经济学变成一门像物理学一样受到高度重视的科学,将牛顿的物理运动定律应用于经济科学。当牛顿定律被修改为旋转参考系时,科里奥利定律和运动或倾向于远离中心的速度就会增加。科里奥利力会微小地改变子弹的方向,影响射击精度,尤其是远距离射击。在加利福尼亚州萨克拉门托的网格线上,向北射击1000码(910米)将向右偏转2.8英寸(71毫米)。当一个简单的规则被强加于一个复杂的系统时,负面的意想不到的后果会反复出现。考虑到物理、社会和经济系统的复杂性,可能会出现意想不到的负面后果,并引起人们的注意。因此,政策制定者在计算经济政策时也应该意识到“科里奥利力”现象,因为“科里奥利力”可能会将预期政策的方向转向不希望的和不可预测的经济结果。
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