Solar PV Rebound Effect on Regional Demand

Abstract

This paper quantifies the hourly solar photovoltaics (PV) rebound effect by examining the changes in consumption after the installation of a rooftop PV system. The hourly PV rebound ratio of a single customer has been estimated by leveraging the recently developed method that estimates behind-the-meter (BTM) gross solar generation from the net demand and weather data. Pre-PV consumption data has been also adjusted to temperature and occupancy after the PV installation for a fair comparison. We then proposed a simple method to find the aggregated hourly PV rebound ratio of national electricity market (NEM) regions in Australia. The results indicate that both morning and afternoon peaks are present in PV rebound of all regions. The early morning peak, however, has been shifted to mid-morning when moving from summer to winter. On average, regional demand has been increased by 20% in the year following the rooftop PV installation.