Evaluating the probability of a lightning flash attaching to a location using individual LDN stroke reports: Damaged solar panel case study

Abstract

Lightning Detection Networks (LDNs) report resolved mean geographical locations for individual strokes. Due to measurement errors, these strokes may not all be reported at the same location even if they are part of the same flash. However, most of the strokes will have 99th percentile error ellipses including this point of interest. This paper describes a method for evaluating the probability of a flash (multiple strokes) attaching to a location in an area of interest. Flashes with more 99th percentile error ellipses including the point of interest can then be compared with flashes with fewer 99th percentile error ellipses including the point of interest. A case study involving a damaged solar panel is presented and the method is applied. The damage was found subsequent to a thunderstorm, and the time of a transient on the output voltage of the panel was recorded. Flashes that were reported at the time of the event are shown to have a high probability of attaching to the location of the panel and can be distinguished from other flashes.