Global Economic Crisis and Indian Economy: An Empirical Analysis of Role of FIIs Investment Behaviour

Karimullah, P. Singh
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Abstract

This paper seeks to examine as to what extent the India's increasing dependency on FIIs has transferred the economic shocks to the national economy. The selected time period is from April 2006 to Oct 2013. The time period includes the pre-crisis period, crisis period and post crisis period. The empirical analysis, which includes trend analysis as well as regression analysis, suggests that there is significant impact of the FIIs investment on Indian stock market as well as on exchange rate. It was external sector which caused heavy effect of the recent global financial crisis on the Indian economy. The higher selling of securities by FIIs caused rupee depreciation due to higher demand for dollar. An important implication of the finding is that the selling practices of securities are important variable in itself instead of the volume of the net investment. When the sale is high, no matter that purchase is also high, there happens crash in the stock market which shows the investors’ attitude towards the future risk.
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全球经济危机与印度经济:外国投资机构投资行为作用的实证分析
本文旨在研究印度对外国投资机构的日益依赖在多大程度上转移了对国民经济的经济冲击。选取的时间段为2006年4月至2013年10月。这个时间段包括危机前、危机期和危机后。实证分析包括趋势分析和回归分析,表明外资机构投资对印度股市和汇率都有显著影响。最近的全球金融危机对印度经济造成严重影响的是外部部门。由于对美元的需求增加,外国金融机构出售更多的证券导致卢比贬值。这一发现的一个重要含义是,证券的卖出行为本身是重要的变量,而不是净投资额。当卖出高的时候,不管买入也高,股票市场都会出现崩盘,这显示了投资者对未来风险的态度。
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