DETERMINING THE ROLE OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND AIR POLLUTION ON PAKISTAN’S ECONOMIC GROWTH: APPLICATION OF AUTOREGRESSIVE DISTRIBUTIVE LAG MODEL (ARDL)

Baseerat Sultana, A. Mansoor
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Abstract

Abstract: The goals of the study are to observe the impact of energy consumption, CO2 emission on Pakistan’s economic growth by using and annual time series data from 1980 to 2016.  The Auto regressive lag distributive (ARDL) model is applied to find out the correlation between the variables. The short run elasticity shows that CO2 emission, fossil fuel and hydro energy consumption decreases Pakistan’s economic growth, while nuclear energy consumption and electric power consumption substantially increases GDP per capita of the country. In the long run, nuclear energy consumption and electric power generation support country’s economic growth, which need more friendly environmental policies to reduce high mass carbon emissions in a country.  
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能源消费和空气污染对巴基斯坦经济增长的影响:自回归分布滞后模型的应用
摘要:本研究利用1980 - 2016年巴基斯坦能源消费、二氧化碳排放对经济增长的影响和年度时间序列数据,研究了能源消费、二氧化碳排放对经济增长的影响。采用自回归滞后分布(ARDL)模型来找出变量之间的相关性。短期弹性表明,二氧化碳排放、化石燃料和水力能源消耗降低了巴基斯坦的经济增长,而核能消费和电力消费大幅提高了该国的人均GDP。从长远来看,核能消费和发电支持着国家的经济增长,这需要更友好的环境政策来减少一个国家大量的高碳排放。
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