Challenges in currency derivatives management in the OTC market in Poland during the Covid-19 pandemic

Abstract

Purpose: The aim of the chapter is to analyze the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and market volatility increase on risk management in the OTC derivatives market in Poland. Design/methodology/approach: The chapter describes the legal background of derivatives trading with non-financial enterprises, then identifies the main risks, and discusses possible actions of market participants. In this regard, the study conducts volatility analysis based on selected market data. Findings: Due to volatility increase and the resulting negative valuation of non-matured currency derivatives by Polish exporters, margin call clauses were triggered, entailing the need to post additional collateral or prematurely close contracts. The described situation is particularly difficult when the pre-settlement limit is fully utilized on deal date, usually in the case of long-lasting large open exposures in non-flexible transactions. Research implications: To determine market risk, studies often apply the VaR approach. Inthis way, the specific amount of risk is analyzed on adaily basis and used by banks both to determine the maximum amount of the contract and to control pre-settlement risk. Apart from many advantages of the VaR approach, there are some drawbacks, especially related to volatility estimation, which usually relies on historical market fluctuations. It may cause that the risk will not be properly valued under crisis conditions. In such situations, supplementary methods should be also implemented (stresstests). Practical implications: Under high market volatility, preventive actions should be prepared in advance, including treasury limit increase, additional funds for collaterals, or contracts modification (flexible products should be considered).Originality and value: The study covers a challenge that banks face, which is rarely described in professional literature but very serious for bank management. Under normal market conditions, if the margin call clause appears and no additional collateral is posted, the transaction should be closed to limit the counterparty’s loss. However, this type of action during the pandemic may impose the risk of force majeure. From the company perspective, using such instruments threatens their early settlement and the need to finance closeout amount.