Postdicting Violence With Sovereign Citizen Actors: An Exploratory Test of the TRAP-18

Darin J. Challacombe, P. Lucas
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引用次数: 25

Abstract

The sovereign citizen movement is one of the largest antigovernment nationalism or domestic terrorist collectives in the United States. In the last decade, over a dozen public officials were injured or killed by individuals adhering to sovereign citizen ideology. The Terrorist Radicalization Assessment Protocol (TRAP-18; Meloy & Gill, 2016; Meloy, Habermeyer, & Guldimann, 2015) is a collection of 18 behavior-based warning signs for terror incidents which has been used to assess primarily international terrorism samples. In this study, the researchers applied the TRAP-18 to both violent and nonviolent incidents involving sovereign citizen members. Using chi-square tests for independence and a logistic regression analysis, the researchers found support for the TRAP-18. The sum of the TRAP-18 scores was able to postdict violent outcomes within the events included within the study. This important finding should guide future research on the use of the TRAP-18 involving sovereign citizens’ collectives and other domestic groups who exhibit violence.
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用主权公民行动者预测暴力:对TRAP-18的探索性测试
主权公民运动是美国最大的反政府民族主义或国内恐怖主义团体之一。在过去十年中,十几名公职人员被坚持主权公民意识形态的人打伤或杀害。恐怖主义极端化评估议定书(TRAP-18);Meloy & Gill, 2016;Meloy, Habermeyer, & Guldimann, 2015)是18个基于行为的恐怖事件警告信号的集合,主要用于评估国际恐怖主义样本。在这项研究中,研究人员将TRAP-18应用于涉及主权公民成员的暴力和非暴力事件。通过卡方检验的独立性和逻辑回归分析,研究人员发现了对TRAP-18的支持。TRAP-18得分的总和能够预测研究中包括的事件中的暴力结果。这一重要发现应指导未来对涉及主权公民集体和其他表现出暴力的国内团体使用TRAP-18的研究。
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