Don't wait, re-escalate: delayed action results in longer duration of COVID-19 restrictions

Abstract

We use a simple linear SIR model with case importation to determine the relationship between the timing of restrictions, duration of measures necessary to return the incidence to a set point, and the final size of the outbreak. We conclude from our analysis that delaying re-escalation of restrictions leads to increased duration of control measures and larger outbreaks. Conversely, earlier re-escalation results in shorter disruptions, smaller outbreaks, and consequently, lower economic and social costs.