Highway passenger traffic volume research based on gray - Markov prediction model

Abstract

In this paper, we propose the application of gray Markov model for forecasting methods, and amend with the smooth ratio the historical data, establish the GM (1,1) model . By determining the coefficients to obtain the development series of the future road passenger traffic amount, and by combining the Markov chain process, to classify the random sequence status into three categories, by determining the status transfer matrix, we predict the road passenger traffic amount in 5 years. The theoretical analysis and practical application show that the prediction is more reliable using this method. We can manage the development of passenger traffic, which helps the administration to make decisions.