Real option analysis in traffic network design with intelligent algorithm

Abstract

In order to ensure the effective use of funds, the government must carry out reasonable traffic planning, in which traffic network design is one of the core contents of traffic planning. The traditional transportation planning has unreasonable factors due to deterministic assumptions. This paper assumes that the demand is a random variable, and then considers the time factor. With the cost recovery and link update as the constraint conditions, the real option is used to solve the problem of the flexibility value of the optimization strategy. The optimization model under uncertainty considering the time factor is given, and the real option is solved by using the LSM method. Genetic algorithm with Monte Carlo is used for network design. The example analysis shows that time factor has a significant impact on network construction decision-making, and real options can effectively describe the flexibility of network construction decision-making.