An Integrated Simulation of Pandemic Influenza Evolution, Mitigation and Infrastructure Response

Abstract

Decision makers, faced with highly complex alternatives for protecting our nation's critical infrastructures must understand the consequences of policy options before they enact solutions to prevent and mitigate disasters. An effective way to examine these tradeoffs is to use a computer simulation that integrates high level representations of each infrastructure, their interdependencies and reactions to a variety of potential disruptions. To address this need, the Critical Infrastructure Protection Decision Support System (CIPDSS) project, funded by the Department of Homeland Security Science and Technology Directorate (DHS S&T), has developed a decision support tool that provides insights to help decision makers make risk-informed decisions. With the addition of a disease progression simulation, the CIPDSS tool has a unique ability to provide a high-level, integrated analysis of a pandemic influenza outbreak while representing the impact on critical infrastructures. This simulation models the time-dependent evolution of the disease and can be calibrated to prior data or to other higher fidelity models as appropriate. Mitigation options such as the use of antivirals and vaccines as prophylaxis, treatment or some combination as well as quarantine options can be assessed. Special attention is given to impacts to the population through sickness, targeted quarantine, or fear-based self-isolation and the resulting impacts on critical infrastructure operations.