Model for Forecasting the Development of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in the Region

Abstract

The article simulates indicators of the level of development of the small and medium-sized enterprises using the Sverdlovsk region as an example. It is shown that the development of small and medium-sized enterprises is a key factor in the economic development of the region, which determines the importance of state policy aimed at its development. An analysis of the growth factors of this sector of the economy shows that there are no unified indicators applicable to all regions of the country. To develop strategies for the development of SMEs, it is necessary to take into account the specifics of regional development by building economic and mathematical models applicable to individual constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The authors attempted to develop a model for predicting the level of development of small and medium-sized enterprises as in the example of the Sverdlovsk region, based on methods of economic and mathematical modeling using logarithmic and linear models. It is shown that the key factors in the development of the region’s small and medium-sized enterprises sector are the costs of research and development, the costs of developing information and communication technologies, as well as the share of the urban population in the region. The above factors have a positive effect on the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, both in terms of growth in the sector's turnover and in terms of growth in the number of SMEs. The forecasting model shows that the increased R&D and ICT costs, as well as the urbanization policy, allow achieving the targets set in the Strategy for the Development of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in the region.