U.S. public transportation ridership analysis and prediction based on COVID-19

Abstract

In this paper, a research was conducted to analyse and predict the impacts of COVID-19 on public transportation ridership in the U.S. and 5 most populous cities of the U.S. (New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, Philadelphia). The paper aims to exploit the correlation between COVID-19 and public transportation ridership in the U.S. and make the reasonable prediction by machine learning models, including ARIMA and Prophet, to help the local governments improve the rationality of their policy implementation. After correlation analyses, high level of significant and negative correlations between monthly growth rate of COVID-19 infections and monthly growth rate of public transportation ridership are decidedly validated in the total U.S., and New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, Philadelphia, except Houston. To analyse the errors of Houston, we consult the literature and made a discussion of Influencing factors. We find that the level of public transportation in quantity and utilization is terribly low in Houston. In addition, the factors, such as the lack of planning law and estimation of urban expressways, the high level of citizens’ dependence on private cars and pride of owning cars play a considerable roll in the errors. And the impacts can be predicted to a certain extent through two forecasting models (ARIMA and Prophet), although the precision of our models is not enough to make a precise forecast due to the limitations of model tuning and model design. According to the comparison of the two models, ARIMA models' forecasting accuracy is between 6% and 10%, and Prophet's forecasting accuracy is between 8%-12%, depending on the city. Since the insufficient stationarity, periodicity, seasonality of time series, the Prophet models are hard be more refined.