Development of the simplified predictive model for the estimation of annual PV energy production: A case study for Odisha

Abstract

The decision to install a PV plant depends on three major factors: the climatic and environment conditions of the location, the viability of commercial operations, and the government policies. Economic feasibility of a PV system in the energy market depends on the cost of technology, the cost of installation, and the yield of the plant. Considering uncertain nature of climatic parameters, development of a reliable model to predict the energy output of a plant-to-be installed becomes essential. The presented study deals with PVGIS software method to estimate the total PV energy production of Odisha for a year. The proposed model considers only two meteorological variables collected from 1195 locations of Odisha: total annual incident global radiation on the surface of the module and annual average air temperature. The paper focuses on simplification at every stage of the development while analyzing the preciseness of the model.