Research on the Risk Assessment Method of Power Operation Based on Fuzzy Output Neutral Network

Jiazhu Xu, Guoqing Tong, Yuxing Liu, Weiming Zhang
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Abstract

In order to accurately and objectively evaluate the risk level when power industry implement a power operation, this paper proposes a risk assessment method for power operation based neutral network with fuzzy output. Firstly, based on the analysis and summary of the power operation historical accident, 19 power operation risk assessment indexes are selected from personnel expedition, mechanical devices and equipment, operating time and environment, and operation conditions. Secondly, in view of the risk level of power operation is a fuzzy phenomenon, a three-layer neural network model of power operation risk assessment is established, in which the assessment indexes are set as input, and five fuzzy risk memberships are output. The model introduces the risk membership degree as the output result, which can not only determine the final risk level of power operation, but also explore the potential risks in power operation according to the risk membership of power operation. Finally, through the comparison of three risk assessment methods, it is verified that this method is more reasonable and objective for power operation assessment.
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基于模糊输出中立网络的电力运行风险评估方法研究
为了准确、客观地评价电力行业实施电力运行时的风险水平,提出了一种基于模糊输出的中性网络的电力运行风险评估方法。首先,在对电力运行历史事故进行分析总结的基础上,从人员考察、机械装置设备、运行时间与环境、运行条件等方面选取了19项电力运行风险评价指标。其次,鉴于电力运行风险等级是一种模糊现象,建立了电力运行风险评价的三层神经网络模型,以评价指标为输入,输出5个模糊风险隶属度。该模型引入风险隶属度作为输出结果,不仅可以确定电力运行的最终风险等级,还可以根据电力运行的风险隶属度来探索电力运行中的潜在风险。最后,通过三种风险评估方法的比较,验证了该方法对于电力运行评估更为合理和客观。
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