A stochastic game model on container security

Abstract

We present a stochastic game model that compares alternatives for better container security. The players are an attacker who plans a nuclear attack, and a defender who considers two interdiction alternatives. The attacker can choose the container path, the attack method and the target, whereas the defender might improve transportation security and inspections at domestic seaports. In the baseline case, the attacker ships a nuclear weapon under the disguise of a front company and through a foreign seaport that does not participate in the Container Security Initiative. The target is a domestic seaport despite the higher economic toll of an urban attack. The defender should improve transportation security, but improvement decisions on domestic seaport inspections should be scrutinized carefully.