Probabilistic Effectiveness Methodology: A holistic approach on risk assessment of nuclear smuggling

Abstract

The Probabilistic Effectiveness Methodology (PEM) is a simulation tool with a holistic approach to risk assessment of nuclear smuggling. PEM simulates valid representations of threat motivation, capabilities, and intent, threat transportation pathways (air, land, and sea), the performance of detector architectures, and individual detector performance associated with preventive radiological and nuclear detection. Further, it analyses from a Red/Adversary perspective, gaps, seams and vulnerabilities of the Global Nuclear Detection Architecture (GNDA). This paper presents the different PEM components and illustrates (through use of notional data) several examples of how PEM can support the decision making process for GNDA problems.