Revisiting Business Cycle Synchronisation in the European Union

António Afonso, Ana Sequeira
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引用次数: 23

Abstract

We assess the business cycle synchronization features of aggregate output in the 27 EU countries using annual data for the period 1970-2009. In particular, we compute measures of synchronisation for private consumption, government spending, gross fixed capital formation, exports and imports. Our results show a rise in synchronization over the full period, and although private consumption is the biggest component of GDP, external demand tends to be a more important determinant of business cycle synchronization.
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重新审视欧盟的商业周期同步
我们使用1970-2009年期间的年度数据评估了27个欧盟国家总产出的商业周期同步特征。特别是,我们计算了私人消费、政府支出、固定资本形成总额、出口和进口的同步指标。我们的研究结果显示,在整个时期内,经济周期的同步性有所上升,尽管私人消费是GDP的最大组成部分,但外部需求往往是商业周期同步性的更重要决定因素。
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