Trend Analysis and Forecasting of Water Level in Mtera Dam Using Exponential Smoothing

Abstract

This study presents trend analysis and forecasting of water level in Mtera dam. Data for water level were obtained from Rufiji Basin Development Authority (RUBADA). The study analyzed trend of water level using time series regression while forecasting of water level in Mtera dam was done using Exponential smoothing. Results revealed that both maximum and minimum water level trends were decreasing. Forecasted values show that daily water level will be below 690 (m.a.s.l) which is the minimum level required for electricity generation on 2023. It was recommended that proper strategies should be taken by responsible authorities to reduce effects that may arise. Strategies my include constructing small dams on upper side of Mtera dam to harvest rain water during rainy season as reserves to be used on dry season. In long run Tanzania Electric Supply Company (TANESCO) should invest into alternative sources of energy.