African Economies and the Rise of Crypt-Currencies

Professor Kelly Kingsly
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Abstract

New cryptocurrencies are emerging daily, providing alternatives to traditional forms of payments and enabling new mediums of exchange such as cash. These currencies span Bitcoin, Litecoin and Etherium. In less than a decade, bitcoin has gone from being an obscure curiosity to a household name. In recent times, bitcoin has risen – with ups and downs – from a few cents per coin to over $4,000. In the meantime, hundreds of other cryptocurrencies – equalling bitcoin in market value – have emerged (Graph 1, left-hand panel). While it seems unlikely that bitcoin or its sisters will displace sovereign currencies, they have demonstrated the viability of the underlying blockchain or distributed ledger technology (DLT).

Venture capitalists and financial institutions are investing heavily in DLT projects that seek to provide new financial services and deliver old ones more efficiently. Bloggers, central bankers, and academics predict transformative or disruptive implications for payments, banks, and the financial system at large.

Findings from Andolfatto (2015, 2016), Broadbent (2016), Raskin and Yermack (2016) and Skingsley (2016) attest to this sea-change in mediums of exchange as consumers. Transformative implications for economies, financial systems and consumer investment behaviour is already changing, reflecting a macroeconomic backdrop characterised by ultra-accommodative interest rates, low economic growth and a dearth of investment opportunities with over 20% of global debt yielding negative returns.

The transformative changes likely embedded in the increased use and &adoption of cryptocurrencies across economies suggest a need to understand the nature of cryptocurrencies better.
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非洲经济和加密货币的崛起
新的加密货币每天都在出现,为传统的支付方式提供替代方案,并使现金等新的交换媒介成为可能。这些货币包括比特币、莱特币和以太坊。在不到十年的时间里,比特币已经从一个默默无闻的好奇变成了一个家喻户晓的名字。最近一段时间,比特币起起伏伏,从每枚硬币几美分涨到4000多美元。与此同时,数百种其他加密货币——市值与比特币相当——已经出现(图1,左侧面板)。虽然比特币或其姊妹币似乎不太可能取代主权货币,但它们已经证明了底层区块链或分布式账本技术(DLT)的可行性。风险投资家和金融机构正在大力投资DLT项目,这些项目寻求提供新的金融服务,并更有效地提供旧的金融服务。博主、央行行长和学者预测,这将对支付、银行和整个金融体系产生变革性或破坏性的影响。Andolfatto(2015年、2016年)、Broadbent(2016年)、Raskin和Yermack(2016年)以及Skingsley(2016年)的研究结果证明,作为消费者的交换媒介发生了翻天覆地的变化。对经济、金融体系和消费者投资行为的变革性影响已经在发生变化,反映出以超宽松利率、低经济增长和缺乏投资机会为特征的宏观经济背景,全球20%以上的债务产生负回报。在各个经济体中,越来越多地使用和采用加密货币可能会带来变革性的变化,这表明有必要更好地理解加密货币的本质。
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