Forecasting of Extreme Weather Intensity Based on Grey Model

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a prediction method for extreme weather events. In order to evaluate and forecast the intensity of extreme weather events, we first quantify the intensity of extreme weather, using the T-Year weather events concept from a mathematical point of view. On this basis, the grey model, which has an excellent performance in short-term prediction, is then used to predict the occurrence rate of extreme weather events with specific intensities. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified through an illustrative example using hail weather data in the United States.