The Dynamic Relationship between Oil Prices and Exchange Rates

Hamid Sakaki
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Using daily data of oil prices and exchange rates of 14 countries for the period January 1999 to November 2014, this study examines the dynamic correlation between oil prices and exchange rates by DCC-GARCH model. The results show the significant negative correlation between oil prices and exchange rates over the period. These results imply that the increase of oil price is coinciding with US dollar depreciation and vice versa.  This correlation strengthens in negative direction during financial crisis period, while it shifts to an upward trend after financial crisis period.
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石油价格与汇率的动态关系
本文利用1999年1月至2014年11月14个国家的石油价格与汇率的日常数据,运用DCC-GARCH模型检验了石油价格与汇率之间的动态相关性。结果显示,在此期间,油价与汇率之间存在显著的负相关关系。这些结果表明,油价的上涨与美元的贬值是一致的,反之亦然。这种相关性在金融危机期间呈负向增强,而在金融危机之后呈上升趋势。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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