Transportation Accessibility and Criminal Rate Empirical analysis based on PSTR model

Abstract

This paper will use China's 2007–2018 provincial panel data to explore the relationship between the transportation accessibility and criminal rate. Then this paper gets the following conclusions: (1) By constructing the PSTR model, it is found that there is a non-linear relationship between transportation development and crime rate, with transportation accessibility as a conversion variable. In addition, there is a conversion function. When using the arrest rate of 10,000 people to represent the variable of crime rate, the value of threshold is 20.746. When using the rate of 10,000 prosecutions to represent the variable of crime rate, the value of threshold is 20.922. (2) On both sides of the threshold, transportation accessibility has produced different effects on the crime rate. When the number of transportation accessibility didn't exceed the threshold, it has an inhibitory effect on the crime rate. However, when it exceeded the threshold, the promotional effect is greater and remarkable. This paper finds that transportation development can not only promote regional accessibility and improve the quality of life of residents, but also accelerate population mobility, causing brain drain and uneven regional development, which could aggravate social instability. Therefore, the country needs to take corresponding measures to reduce the negative effects of transportation development and promote balanced regional development.