Population Growth, Building, and Banking

A. Antoniades
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Abstract

US counties with higher population growth prior to 2000, experienced higher growth in residential construction in the run-up to the financial crisis of 2007-08. Banks operating in these counties shifted their loan portfolios more aggressively towards construction loans and away from other non-real estate loans. Although shifts towards construction lending that followed local construction activity did not lead to higher loan default rates, more aggressive shifts did.
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人口增长、建筑和银行业
2000年之前人口增长率较高的美国县,在2007-08年金融危机爆发前,住宅建设的增长率也较高。在这些县经营的银行更积极地将贷款组合转向建筑贷款,远离其他非房地产贷款。虽然随着地方建筑活动而转向建筑贷款并没有导致更高的贷款违约率,但更激进的转变确实导致了更高的贷款违约率。
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