A load profile prediction model for residential consumers in South Africa

Abstract

A revised model that estimates the load profiles for residential consumers in South Africa was developed and is described in this paper. Through the NRS 034 domestic load research programme a large number of load profiles of residential consumers from various Living Standards Measure (ie LSM) classes were collected. The load profiles are further described by a set of socio demographic indicators which is obtained through a front-door survey. A model that relates the hourly customer load profiles to household income, time electrified and region was developed and the output may be used in various planning activities, e.g. electrification design, network expansion planning, long term load forecasting etc. This analysis covers all data collected to end of 2011. A software implementation of the model is available which allows the user to obtain estimates of hourly profiles for different months given a set of input parameters.