Using Budgeted Cost of Work Performed to Predict Estimates at Completion for Mid-Acquisition Space Programs

Abstract

Conventional techniques to predict estimates at completion using earned value management data generally underpredict the end costs for space acquisition programs. This research assesses the accuracies of earned value management analysis methods to forecast estimates at completion for on-going space system acquisitions. The identification of more accurate “mid-stream” earned value management analysis methods improves managers’ abilities to assess the reasonableness of cost estimates. This research finds the linear relationship between budgeted cost of work performed and time yields a more accurate earned value management-based prediction for space program estimates at completion than existing methods. This result offers an empirically-supported method for earned value management data that may be useful to cost analysts and managers alike.