Population dynamics and economic growth in Kenya

Abstract

Since the publication of the Malthusian population principle, the overall impact of population change on economic growth has provoked huge debates that have challenged pessimistic and optimistic postulations. Pessimists’ research posits that population growth puts a strain on government services. Conversely, optimists agree that population increase is a key component of economic growth through expanded specialisation and increased labour resources. Considering these conflicts in the literature, the Malthusian population principle and the partial least square structural equation model (PLS-SEM) are used by the author to assess the impact of population dynamics on economic growth in Kenya by incorporating the effects of education and health expenditures. The results show that population dynamics influence economic growth both directly and indirectly, with their indirect impact reinforcing the pessimistic argument that an increase in population dynamics growth has a negative effect on economic growth. Without doubt, the Kenyan working population has high health- and education-related needs, which is causing a slowdown in economic growth. The study suggests that state agencies develop and implement various policy programs focusing on public health and active involvement of the population in economic activities.