Comment – Public Support to Companies in Times of Crisis: The Value of Microsimulations based on Company Data

Abstract

The use of company data to simulate the effect of an economic shock or a public policy is a new method of ex ante forecasting and evaluation of public policies. Microsimulations are based on assumptions about the behaviour of firms, which can be discussed. However, as the three articles in this thematic section show, microsimulations allow us to identify the characteristics of firms that best capture their trajectory. During the crisis, the sector of activity proved to be the primary factor. Pre-crisis liquidity and productivity levels of firms then explain the fragility of firms within each sector. These simulations then show that public support has been fairly well targeted, and that the least productive companies have not been particularly helped. The possible overcompensation of sectors needs to be studied. It will be important to compare these simulations with the ex post evaluations, once the company data are available. © 2022, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques. All rights reserved.