Prospects for Accelerator Technology

Abstract

Accelerator technology today is a greater than US$5 billion per annum business. Development of higher-performance technology with improved reliability that delivers reduced system size and life cycle cost is expected to significantly increase the total accelerator technology market and open up new application sales. Potential future directions are identified and pitfalls in new market penetration are considered. Both of the present big market segments, medical radiation therapy units and semiconductor ion implanters, are approaching the "maturity" phase of their product cycles, where incremental development rather than paradigm shifts is the norm, but they should continue to dominate commercial sales for some time. It is anticipated that large discovery-science accelerators will continue to provide a specialty market beset by the unpredictable cycles resulting from the scale of the projects themselves, coupled with external political and economic drivers. Although fraught with differing market entry difficulties, the security and environmental markets, together with new, as yet unrealized, industrial material processing applications, are expected to provide the bulk of future commercial accelerator technology growth.