Photovoltaic power plant production operational forecast based on its short-term forecasting model

Abstract

This paper addresses the study of operational photovoltaic power plant forecasting based on the results of short-term forecasts, thus providing the multi-level hierarchical system of solar power plant generation planning. The study provides the comparison between naive persistence, autoregressive and autoregressive moving average models with the corresponding parameters tuning in order to identify the most effective way to implement intra-day forecasting option. The case study is based on real photovoltaic power plant operational data in order to verify the opportunity of the presented approach practical implementation.