A demographic–economic model for adolescent substance abuse and crime prevention

Abstract

A demographic–economic model is used to estimate the impact of evidenced-based, substance-abuse social intervention that addresses delinquent crime. If ramped-up with more extensive financing, prevention would have many beneficial effects on drug and behavioral problems of delinquent youth. Historical data show drug use accelerates in the 14–15 year age group and peaks in the 18–20 year age group and then begins to decline until age 30. Over a 1-year interval, African Americans aged 12–17 have been found to use illicit drugs at a rate of 14% and Whites at 17%; however, African American youth drug offenses are 51% higher than comparable White youth offenses. Significant economic costs are generated by the disproportionate criminal justice outcomes experienced by African American adolescents, and cost savings are calculated. Two scenarios are developed to illustrate the effect of expanded programming for at-risk youths. A decline in residential placement in the juvenile justice system is projected along with cost savings to taxpayers and victims.