Wildfire Crime and Social Vulnerability in Italy: A Panel Investigation

Abstract

In this paper, we analyse the socio–economic determinants of wildfire crime in Italy through panel data at the regional level. Using fixed-effect Poisson models and fixed-effect quantile panel regression analysis, it is found that social vulnerability factors such as poverty, organised crime and inequality in income play an important role in driving wildfire crime. The quantile regression analysis highlights a significant heterogeneity of the effects of driving factors across the Italian peninsula. Finally, we also extend our analysis to investigate the effect of economic downturns on wildfire crime and we find a positive correlation between a deterioration of per capita income and wildfire crime.