Where's the Winning?

Abstract

Donald Trump premised his successful campaign for the United States presidency on a pledge that his supporters would "start winning again." This paper evaluates the extent to which this promise became a reality for those voters. By comparing votes at the county level, I show that Trump support is not associated with any significant relative improvement in either employment or housing prices. In fact, counties that voted for Hillary Clinton have performed significantly better in the housing market, even after controlling for previous differences in prices and growth rates. There is simply no evidence of superior economic performance in the regions that had fallen behind under previous presidencies.