Liquidity, Trading Activity, and Stock Price Volatility

Ndava Constantine Mupondo
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Abstract

Purpose: While the bulk of previous research focused on security-level volatility and the relationship of its determinants, the current study considers the relationship between the number of trades, lagged absolute returns, trading volume, bid-ask spread, and price volatility on the Zimbabwe stock market. Methods: The study applied Hausman's (1982) tests of the specification. The parameters and elasticity of explanatory variables have been estimated by utilizing the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) procedure in a five-equation structural model. The data were obtained from a web-based financial market platform, Investing.com for the period between 2009 and 2021.  Results: Results show that inflation had a positive relationship with stock price volatility, which provided a hedge against inflation. There exists an indistinguishable difference between the random effects (RE) and fixed effects (FE) results and those obtained using the Pooled Ordinary Least Squares (POLS) on the total sample reflecting a cohesion of these findings. Implications: Understanding the relationship between inflation and market risk (volatility) can be beneficial to the investor in selecting the appropriate and most convenient investment strategy. From a policy-making perspective, strategic policy measures employed towards reducing inflation would certainly reduce stock market volatility and boost investor confidence.
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流动性,交易活动和股票价格波动
目的:虽然之前的大部分研究都集中在安全水平波动及其决定因素的关系上,但目前的研究考虑了津巴布韦股票市场的交易数量、滞后绝对收益、交易量、买卖价差和价格波动之间的关系。方法:采用Hausman(1982)规范检验。在一个五方程结构模型中,利用广义矩量法(GMM)程序估计了解释变量的参数和弹性。这些数据来自基于网络的金融市场平台Investing.com,时间为2009年至2021年。结果:研究结果表明,通货膨胀与股票价格波动呈正相关,为对冲通货膨胀提供了一种对冲手段。随机效应(RE)和固定效应(FE)的结果与使用混合普通最小二乘法(POLS)获得的结果在总样本上存在难以区分的差异,反映了这些结果的凝聚力。启示:了解通货膨胀和市场风险(波动率)之间的关系有助于投资者选择合适和最方便的投资策略。从政策制定的角度来看,为降低通胀而采取的战略性政策措施肯定会减少股市波动,提振投资者信心。
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