Does the Early Bird Catch the Worm? Evidence and Interpretation on the Long-Term Impact of School Entry Age in China

Abstract

The long-term economic impact of children’s age at primary school entry on educational attainment and labor market outcomes is one of the primary concerns to families, educators, and policymakers. Using a nationally representative survey of families and individuals, China Family Panel Studies, this paper is the first to explore these effects in a causal sense in the Chinese context. We utilize a regression discontinuity design that employs the threshold date for primary school entry set by the 1986 Compulsory Education Law of China as a source of exogenous variation in the timing of school entry. We first document a salient and robust compliance rate of school entry requirement. RD estimates indicate that a one-year delay in primary school enrollment significantly increases years of schooling completed by roughly two years. Even though school entry age does not exhibit statistically significant effects on labor market performance for the full sample, we find that delaying primary school entry increases the probability of being in the labor force for men, but decreases that for women. Further evidence suggests that the decline in the female labor force participation due to school entry requirement is driven by both demand-side factors such as insufficient job opportunities in urban areas and discrimination in employment against female job seekers, and supply-side factors including fertility decision, childcare provision, and assortative mating.