Short-term traffic flow prediction with optimized Multi-kernel Support Vector Machine

Abstract

Accurate prediction of the traffic state can help to solve the problem of urban traffic congestion, providing guiding advices for people's travel and traffic regulation. In this paper, we propose a novel short-term traffic flow prediction algorithm, which is based on Multi-kernel Support Vector Machine (MSVM) and Adaptive Particle Swarm Optimization (APSO). Firstly, we explore both the nonlinear and randomness characteristic of traffic flow, and hybridize Gaussian kernel and polynomial kernel to constitute the MSVM. Secondly, we optimize the parameters of MSVM with a novel APSO algorithm by considering both the historical and real-time traffic data. We evaluate our algorithm by doing thorough experiment on a large real dataset. The results show that our algorithm can do a timely and adaptive prediction even in the rush hour when the traffic conditions change rapidly. At the same time, the prediction results are more accurate compared to four baseline methods.