Impacts of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on South China Sea Monsoon

Abstract

It is of great practical importance to understand the variability of the South China Sea (SCS) monsoon on intraseasonal time scales, since the anomalous enhancement of the SCS monsoon may exert serious impacts on the safety of offshore engineering and marine transportation. Our composite analysis shows that the SCS surface wind anomalies are considerably varying with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) eastward propagation. The SCS summer southwest monsoon tends to be stronger (weaker) in phases 5–8 (1–4) of MJO with the largest positive (negative) wind-speed anomalies when the MJO convection is centered in the western Pacific (far western Indian Ocean), suggesting the highest (lowest) probability of the gale over the SCS. The variation of the western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH), induced by the variations of the local meridional circulation, is shown to play a crucial role in the MJO-SCS summer monsoon linkage. The SCS winter monsoon is also shown to be modulated by the MJO with strengthened (weakened) surface northeasterly in phases 5–6 (1–2). The extra-tropical East Asian trough and East Asian westerly jet associated with the local meridional circulation can well explain the changes of the MJO-SCS winter monsoon relationship. The opposite responses of the wind direction during the same phases of the MJO between summer and winter may be attributed to the discrepancy of meridional circulation related to the wintertime equatorward shift of the MJO convection. The present study indicates that the MJO could be taken into consideration when applying extended-range weather forecast over the SCS as the predictability of the MJO activity is up to 15–20 day currently.