SCENARIO MODELING OF FRONTIER FINANCIAL MARKET DEVELOPMENT

Abstract

Purpose – Hypothesis verification and quantification of the relationship between drivers and the resulting factors for a lasting impact on the long-term ICT development, globalization, structural changes in the geo-economy and changes in socio-ethical standards in society in the frontier financial markets. Research methodology – Based on open source information, a database of almost 19,000 data was formed - 748 obser-vations by country on 25 indicators. The simulation was performed on the basis of a mixed-model, which is a statistical model that is an extended version of the General Linear Model (GLM), using SAS / STAT® 13.1 software. Findings – Based on the Solution for Fixed Effects and Solution for Random Effects and the test of fixed effects, glo-balization, economic dominance, economic growth and human development were identified as statistically significant patterns of transformation of frontier financial markets. Research limitations – The paper does not attempt a comprehensive coverage of the topic. However, it identifies main drivers of the development of frontier financial markets and makes calls for further research. Practical implications – The findings are likely to be useful for practitioners and researchers to gain knowledge about the main drivers of the frontier financial markets development. Originality/Value – The application of the technique of multidimensional ranking of drivers has identified globalization, geoeconomic changes and human development as the most influential drivers for the development of frontier financial markets.