A SEIRD Model for Analysing the Dynamics of Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic in Nigeria

Abstract

The first case of the novel coronavirus (COVID–19) in sub–Saharan Africa was confirmed by Nigeria and the figure has since then been on the rise. Current global efforts are geared towards getting effective vaccine for the cure of the disease. The hope of accessing the relieve offered by the arrival of such vaccine will obviously take significant amount of t ime. In the face of the resurgence of the disease, the need to slow the spread and flatten the curves is currently a priority of both governmental and non–governmental organisations in Nigeria. If the dynamics of the disease can be determined, then it becomes easier to strategize and make suitable preventive policies that will slow the spread and ultimately flatten the c urves. Here, the goal is to develop a compartmental–based model for analysing the dynamics of the pandemic in Nigeria. Considering the control policies currently in place social distancing, mask usage, personal hygiene and quarantine, and using data provided by Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), World Health Organization (WHO) and Wolfram Data Repository on COVID–19, the proposed model is fitted to the available data using the Quasi-Newton algorithm. The infection rate, average latent time, average infective time and average mortality rate are estimated. Also, the overall effectiveness of the current control policies is measured. Predictions on the turning points and possible vanishing time of the virus in Nigeria are made. Recommendations on how to manage the resurgence of the disease in Nigeria are also suggested.