Load Prediction of Electric Heating Cluster and Its Influence on Rural Distribution Network

Shupeng Li, Xianxu Huo, X. Xi, Jiancheng Yu, Yaqing Zhang, Jiarui Zhang
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Abstract

With the gradual advancement of the "coal-to-electricity" project, a large number of electric heating equipment are connected to the rural power distribution network, and a new typical daily peak load in winter appears, which brings challenges to the safe and stable operation of the power distribution network. Therefore, this paper proposes a load forecasting method for rural distribution network connected to electric heating cluster and its impact on distribution network. First, a load forecasting model for rural heating with electricity is built; then, peak-valley correlation, network loss, and voltage offset are proposed to evaluate electricity the influence of heating cluster load on rural distribution network; finally, the effectiveness of the electric heating cluster load forecasting method proposed in this paper is verified by a typical example, and the impact of the electric heating access on the distribution network is evaluated by the proposed indicators.
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电供热集群负荷预测及其对农村配电网的影响
随着“煤改电”工程的逐步推进,大量电采暖设备接入农村配电网,冬季出现了新的典型日高峰负荷,给配电网的安全稳定运行带来了挑战。为此,本文提出了一种接入电供热集群的农村配电网负荷预测方法及其对配电网的影响。首先,建立了农村电供暖负荷预测模型;然后,提出了峰谷关联、网损和电压偏移来评估采暖集群负荷对农村配电网的影响;最后,通过典型算例验证了本文提出的电采暖集群负荷预测方法的有效性,并利用所提出的指标评价了电采暖接入对配电网的影响。
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