Rural Shadow Wages and Youth Agricultural Labor Supply in Ethiopia: Evidence from Farm Panel Data

Takalign Sakketa, Nicolas Gerber
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引用次数: 11

Abstract

The majority of the youth in Ethiopia live in rural areas where agriculture is the main source of livelihood. Using gender- and age-specific values of agricultural labor return (shadow wages), we systematically analyse trends, patterns and prospects of youth’s labor supply in agriculture across space (farm locations). We also analyse whether the household male and female youth members’ agricultural labor supply is responsive to economic incentives. We investigate these using shadow wages estimation techniques applied to farm-household panel data collected during the 2010/11 and 2014/15 agricultural seasons. The results indicate that trends and patterns of the youth’s involvement in agriculture vary across gender and farm work locations, and so do their labor returns. Yet the on-farm participation for youth members is declining across time irrespective of gender, whilst their participation in off-farm activities is increasing. The findings also suggest that changes in agricultural shadow wages matter for the youth’s involvement in the sector, but their impact differs for male and female youth. The results are consistent after controlling for individual heterogeneity, sample selection and instrumenting for possible endogeneity. In addition, we find that youth’s intentions and actual engagement in agricultural production vary greatly. This suggests that the frequent narrative of youth disengaging from agriculture may be a result of methodological flaws or data limitations. Taking into account the intensity of the youth’s involvement in family farm, own farm and off-farm work, the results challenge the presumption that youth are abandoning agriculture, at least in agricultural potential areas of Ethiopia. Instead the youth’s involvement makes an important economic contribution to the operation of the family farm. Therefore, it is necessary to invest in agricultural development to enhance productivity and employment opportunities; and structural transformation that addresses the imperfections and rigidities in labor and other input markets to make agriculture more attractive to youth.
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埃塞俄比亚农村影子工资与青年农业劳动力供给:来自农场面板数据的证据
埃塞俄比亚的大多数青年生活在农村地区,农业是那里的主要生计来源。利用特定性别和年龄的农业劳动力回报值(影子工资),我们系统地分析了跨空间(农场地点)青年农业劳动力供应的趋势、模式和前景。我们也分析家庭是否男女青年成员的农业劳动力供给是经济激励响应。我们使用影子工资估算技术对2010/11和2014/15农业季节收集的农户面板数据进行了研究。结果表明,趋势和模式的青年参与农业不同性别和农场的工作地点,所以他们劳动的回报。然而,无论性别如何,青年成员的农场参与率都在下降,而他们参与非农活动的人数却在增加。研究结果还表明,农业影子工资的变化对青年参与该部门有影响,但其对男性和女性青年的影响不同。在控制了个体异质性、样本选择和可能的内生性仪器之后,结果是一致的。此外,我们发现青年参与农业生产的意愿和实际参与程度差异很大。这表明,青年脱离农业的频繁叙述可能是方法缺陷或数据限制的结果。考虑到青年参与家庭农场、自有农场和非农业工作的强度,结果挑战了年轻人正在放弃农业的假设,至少在埃塞俄比亚的农业潜力地区是这样。相反,青年的参与对家庭农场的经营做出了重要的经济贡献。因此,有必要投资农业发展,以提高生产力和就业机会;结构转型,解决劳动力和其他投入市场的不完善和僵化问题,使农业对年轻人更具吸引力。
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