STRATEGY OF DETERMINATION OF THE HYPOTHETIC DIRECTION OF INCREASING THE RISK OF INFLAMMATION OF THE INFRASTRUCTURE SAFETY

Abstract

In this article, a mathematical apparatus for comparative analysis of the set of threats of state information resources (DIR) is proposed for consideration, which combines methods and approaches to assess their qualitative and quantitative indicators. The main feature of the study is that the proposed approach to solving the problem of choice does not require a complete restoration of the principle of optimality, but allows to limit only information that will be sufficient to select the "reference sample". The essence of the ranking procedure lies in the fact that the expert poses the threat of an IP in the order that, in his opinion, is the most rational. For each of them the expert assigns specific numbers from a natural series - ranks. In this case, the highest rank receives the threat that has the highest priority. The order scale to be obtained as a result of ranking should satisfy the condition of equality of the number of ranks of the number of ranked threats. In this case, the less complex value of the numerical value will correspond to the least dangerous threat. The essence of the method lies in the fact that the expert must put each threat considered in a certain place in accordance with the degree of availability of one or another property, or in accordance with the proposed by the same expert, the coefficient of significance. In this case, the larger value of a complex assessment corresponds to the least dangerous threat. The basic mathematical method for assessing the threat of threats from the "general population" of the IB classes of threats is the method of formation and research of generalized indicators (criteria), the results of complex combination of which determine the trends of qualitative growth of their significance. Methods of expert assessments are used to increase the reliability of the results of assessing the levels of potential hazards of each threat from the "general population" of IB threat classes. The application of the proposed method will reduce the time to assess the state of the security of information resources and will allow, firstly, to identify the most significant threats that could inflict the greatest damage to information security and, secondly, to direct them the necessary means and safeguards.