Improving Local History Match Using Machine Learning Generated Regions from Production Response and Geological Parameter Correlations

Abstract

Summary We present a data driven workflow to improve local history match quality by identifying model regions from correlation between production response and geological modelling parameters for use in an assisted history matching framework. This paper outlines the implementation and results from a large mature field case study. Regions are identified by calculating the partial correlation between individual well production misfits and uncertain geological modelling parameters across 500 models. Wells are then categorised into three groups based on their correlations: positive, negative and insignificant. A probabilistic neural network (PNN) is trained on the location of each well and its group. A map of regions can then be calculated using the PNN. The parameters used to define the region map are then varied separately in each region in an assisted history matching loop. In the full field case study, an 8.8% improvement in oil rate misfit within the positively correlated well group was achieved by regional modification of the net-to-gross multiplier, with no detrimental effect on the other groups match quality. This case study demonstrates the effective identification and utilisation of geologically and dynamically inferred regions which improve the local history match