Predicting survival after stroke: experience from the Perth Community Stroke Study.

Abstract

Survival is the most fundamental measure of the outcome from stroke, the magnitude of the burden being strongly reflected in case-fatality and survival rates. Although the literature is rich with follow-up studies examining survival after stroke, most are based on selected series of patients and factors which correlated with time to death have usually been determined in univariate analyses. We examined the factors associated with a high risk of death during the acute phase of stroke. Analyses were based on data from a population based study of acute cerebrovascular disease undertaken in Perth, Western Australia, during an 18 month period 1989-1990. Using logistic regression modelling techniques only 2 factors, severe loss of consciousness, odds ratio 14.7 [95% confidence limits (CL), 4.0-53.6], and severe paresis, odds ratio 7.2 [95% CL, 1.6-32.0], independently predicted death by 28 days after the onset of stroke. The implication is that 2 simple measures, level of consciousness and motor power, may help direct management. Furthermore, age is not an independent risk factor for death early after stroke. Therefore the elderly should not be denied therapy purely on the basis of their age.