Delay and Learning in Coordination

Christophe Chamley, Zhen Zhou
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

This paper studies a coordination game with incomplete information and the option to delay. The delay option enables the agents to observe a binary signal depending on whether the early actions (e.g., investment) surpasses a threshold. The anticipation of information incentivizes agents to wait and free-ride on the information, whereas acting early can help to generate good news, and consequently induce more coordination. Relying on this trade-off, we find the unique monotone equilibrium, which features the inability of the delay option in facilitating coordination. If the waiting period is sufficiently short or the interest rate is sufficiently low, the delay option induces more inaction and makes coordination more difficult to achieve, as compared with the static case. We further discuss the theoretical implications for understanding the impact of monetary policy on economic recovery and how the accessibility of information affects financial stability.
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协调的延迟和学习
研究了具有不完全信息和延迟选项的协调对策。延迟选项使代理能够根据早期行为(例如,投资)是否超过阈值来观察二进制信号。对信息的预期激励代理人等待并免费搭乘信息,而尽早行动有助于产生好消息,从而诱导更多的协调。基于这种权衡,我们找到了唯一的单调均衡,其特征是延迟选项无法促进协调。如果等待期足够短或利率足够低,与静态情况相比,延迟选项会导致更多的不作为,使协调更难以实现。我们进一步讨论了理解货币政策对经济复苏影响的理论含义,以及信息的可获取性如何影响金融稳定。
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