Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction Based on I-SAWOA-Deep Echo State Network

Zhihui Yang, Qingyong Zhang, Changwu Li, Qiang Luo
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Abstract

In recent years, the phenomenon of road congestion has occurred in all cities around the world, and this situation has become more and more severe, which has affected the travel of residents and restricted the development of cities. Short term traffic flow prediction is one of the key technologies of Intelligent Transportation System. It can predict the traffic flow in the future for a period of time through historical data, and then provide key information for traffic management personnel to make decisions. Therefore, researchers in various fields pay attention to it, and gradually propose a variety of prediction methods.In this paper, the Deep Echo State Network is selected as the basic prediction method, and the Improved-Whale Optimization Algorithm is used to optimize the super parameters of the network, which solves the problem that it is difficult to reasonably set the super parameters of the network. Finally, the experiment shows that the algorithm can follow the change trend of traffic flow data and has a good prediction effect.
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基于i - sawoa -深度回波状态网络的短期交通流预测
近年来,世界各地的城市都出现了道路拥堵的现象,并且这种情况越来越严重,影响了居民的出行,制约了城市的发展。短期交通流预测是智能交通系统的关键技术之一。它可以通过历史数据预测未来一段时间内的交通流量,为交通管理人员决策提供关键信息。因此,各领域的研究人员对其予以重视,并逐渐提出了多种预测方法。本文选择Deep Echo State Network作为基本预测方法,并采用改进的whale优化算法对网络的超参数进行优化,解决了网络超参数难以合理设置的问题。最后,实验表明,该算法能够跟踪交通流数据的变化趋势,具有良好的预测效果。
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