Influence of climate change on the potential global distribution of Erythrina crista-galli L. (Fabaceae) outside its natural limits

Abstract

Exotic species are potentially dangerous for the conservation of native biota because they escapepredators, competitors and pathogens that usually are not displaced with the species to the areas inwhich they begin to colonize. The modeling of the potential distribution of occurrence of a nativespecies can be an important tool for the recognition of environments colonized by an exotic, introducedand naturalized species. Erythrina crista-galli L. (Fabaceae) is a pioneer species, native of Brazil,Uruguay, Argentina, Bolivia and Paraguay. Due to its ecological characteristics, it has the capacity toexpand its distribution to new available. This work aimed to identify the potential areas of distributionof Erythrina crista-galli L. outside South America, evaluating the favorable areas of 22,000 years BPuntil today as a way to verify the tendency of expansion or reduction of these territorial spaces outsideits natural limits. The results indicate that the algorithm used in modeling the distribution for the speciesis highly efficient in pointing out areas in which the naturalization of the species could occur, increasingits distribution to new intercontinental frontiers. In these areas E. crista-galli could, due to its ecologicalcharacteristics, impact these local ecosystems. The study also indicates what would be the trend ofdynamics of these potential areas in relation to the climatic changes that have occurred since the lastglacial maximum.