A User's Guide to International Capital Flows

Francis E. Warnock
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Abstract

This note provides a description of international flows and positions data, a way to identify extreme capital flow episodes (such as surges and stops), and a straightforward technique to predict whether a country should receive more or fewer portfolio inflows in the coming year based on a notion of benchmark inflows. Excerpt UVA-GEM-0171 Jan. 23, 2019 A User's Guide to International Capital Flows In some ways, capital flows are like oxygen: too little or too much can be dangerous. Surges of capital inflows are often followed by crises. Capital flows in, at first funding worthy projects but later enabling questionable ones, and all is well as long as capital continues to flow in and the recipient economy remains buoyant. But when the tide turns and the capital inflow surge turns into a sudden stop, questionable projects are exposed, defaults increase, and the economy suffers. It need not be this way—not all surges end in stops—but the specter of a virtuous cycle turning vicious looms over international capital flows. This note is intended to get the reader from 0 to 60 in just 10 pages. For those unaccustomed to capital flows, it begins with a description of balance of payments (BOP) and international investment position (IIP) data. It then proceeds to measures of extreme capital flows (such as surges and stops), before ending with new thinking on the benchmark amount of inflows a country can expect to receive. BOP and IIP Data: The Basics . . .
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国际资本流动用户指南
本文提供了对国际流动和头寸数据的描述,一种识别极端资本流动事件(如激增和停止)的方法,以及一种基于基准流入概念预测一个国家在未来一年是否应该获得更多或更少的投资组合流入的直接技术。在某些方面,资本流动就像氧气:太少或太多都可能是危险的。资本流入的激增往往伴随着危机。资本流入,起初为有价值的项目提供资金,但后来为有问题的项目提供资金,只要资本继续流入,受援国经济保持繁荣,一切都会好起来。但当潮流转向,资本流入突然停止时,问题项目暴露,违约增加,经济受损。并非所有的增长都以停滞告终,但良性循环转为恶性循环的幽灵笼罩着国际资本流动。这篇笔记的目的是让读者在短短10页的时间里从0岁到60岁。对于那些不习惯资本流动的人,它首先描述了国际收支(BOP)和国际投资头寸(IIP)数据。然后,它开始衡量极端资本流动(如激增和停止),最后以对一个国家预计可以接收的基准流入金额的新思考结束。BOP和IIP数据:基础…
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