Model for Predicting Land Use Changes in the Coastal Area of Mandeh, Pesisir Selatan Regency

Abstract

. The Mande region in West Sumatra is a captivating tourist destination known for its breathtaking natural landscapes, including hills, beaches, and surrounding islands. However, The enhancement of the Mande region as a captivating tourist destination necessitates the construction of tourist facilities and infrastructure, which can result in changes regarding land use and land cover (LULC). It is essential to understand and model these changes to assess their potential impacts on the environment. To address this, a quantitative method using a remote sensing approach was employed in this study. The data used for modeling LULC changes in the Mande region for 2025 and 2030 were obtained from satellite imagery, specifically Landsat 5 in 2000, Landsat 7 in 2007, and Landsat 7 in 2019. These images served as reference data for accuracy testing. The findings regarding LULC changes in the Mande region for 2025 and 2030 indicate that the most significant changes occur in the secondary forest land cover category. The area covered by secondary forest decreased by 54.61 hectares (1.34%), while the primary forest area also experienced a decline of 61.38 hectares (1.49%). On the other hand, residential land use witnessed an increase of 4.23 hectares (0.10%). The modeling of LULC changes from 2025 to 2030 further demonstrates that the area covered by secondary forest undergoes a change of 117.07 hectares (2.85%), while the area covered by primary forest changes by 13.33 hectares (0.32%), both experiencing a decrease. The expansion of developed land accounted for 0.82 hectares (0.02%) of the increased land use. These findings shed light on the anticipated changes in LULC in the Mande region, with a notable decrease in forested areas and a slight increase in developed land. It is important to carefully manage and monitor these changes to ensure sustainable development, preserve the natural environment, and maintain the ecological balance of the region.